The March 2026 National Trends in Disability Employment (nTIDE) report shows that employment of working-aged people with disabilities declined between January and February. While the country braces for the potential economic impact of the bombing campaign in Iran, people with disabilities are experiencing a weakening labor market.
Based on data from BLS Jobs Report and separate nTIDE analysis, the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities (ages 16-64) decreased from 38.4 percent in January 2026 to 38.1 percent in February 2026 (down 0.8 percent, or 0.3 percentage points). For people without disabilities (ages 16-64), the employment-to-population ratio remained the same at 74.5 percent in both January and February 2026. The employment-to-population ratio, a key indicator, is the percentage of people who are working relative to the total population (the number of people working divided by the total population, then multiplied by 100).
“The February 2026 employment-to-population ratio (38.1%) did not continue the upward trend seen in the previous three months (November, 39.8%; December 38.9%; and January, 38.4%),” remarked John O’Neill, PhD, director of the Center for Employment and Disability Research at Kessler Foundation. “This is disappointing because we hoped this month’s numbers would continue to show people with disabilities breaking out of the post-COVID plateau. In addition, with the conflict in Iran, we may see temporary layoffs that further decrease the employment of both people with and without disabilities,” he added.
Similarly, the labor force participation rate for people with disabilities decreased from 42 percent in January 2026 to 41.8 percent in February 2026 (down 0.5 percent or 0.2 percentage points). For people without disabilities, the labor force participation rate increased from 78 percent in January 2026 to 78.1 percent in February 2026 (up 0.1 percent or 0.1 percentage points). The labor force participation rate reflects the percentage of people who are in the labor force (working, on temporary layoff, on furlough, or actively looking for work in the last four weeks) relative to the total population (the number of people in the labor force divided by the number of people in the total population multiplied by 100).
“The labor force participation rate followed a similar pattern to the employment-to-population ratio, slowing over the last two months,” said Andrew Houtenville, PhD, professor of economics and director of the UNH-IOD. “In the past, when prices increased, the labor force participation rate of people with disabilities increased, as families struggled with affording basic needs. It is an ‘all hands-on-deck situation,’ especially since people with disabilities are nearly three times more likely to live below the poverty line,” he added.
Compared with the same time last year, the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities increased from 37.1 percent in February 2025 to 38.1 percent in February 2026 (up 2.7 percent or 1 percentage points). For people without disabilities, the employment-to-population ratio increased slightly from 74.4 percent in February 2025 to 74.5 percent in February 2026 (up 0.1 percent or 0.1 percentage points).
“The February 2026 employment-to-population ratio (38.1%) did not continue the upward trend seen in the previous three months (November, 39.8%; December 38.9%; and January, 38.4%),” remarked John O’Neill, PhD, director of the Center for Employment and Disability Research at Kessler Foundation. “This is disappointing because we hoped this month’s numbers would continue to show people with disabilities breaking out of the post-COVID plateau. In addition, with the conflict in Iran, we may see temporary layoffs that further decrease the employment of both people with and without disabilities,” he added.
Similarly, the labor force participation rate for people with disabilities decreased from 42 percent in January 2026 to 41.8 percent in February 2026 (down 0.5 percent or 0.2 percentage points). For people without disabilities, the labor force participation rate increased from 78 percent in January 2026 to 78.1 percent in February 2026 (up 0.1 percent or 0.1 percentage points). The labor force participation rate reflects the percentage of people who are in the labor force (working, on temporary layoff, on furlough, or actively looking for work in the last four weeks) relative to the total population (the number of people in the labor force divided by the number of people in the total population multiplied by 100).
“The labor force participation rate followed a similar pattern to the employment-to-population ratio, slowing over the last two months,” said Andrew Houtenville, PhD, professor of economics and director of the UNH-IOD. “In the past, when prices increased, the labor force participation rate of people with disabilities increased, as families struggled with affording basic needs. It is an ‘all hands-on-deck situation,’ especially since people with disabilities are nearly three times more likely to live below the poverty line,” he added.
Compared with the same time last year, the employment-to-population ratio for people with disabilities increased from 37.1 percent in February 2025 to 38.1 percent in February 2026 (up 2.7 percent or 1 percentage points). For people without disabilities, the employment-to-population ratio increased slightly from 74.4 percent in February 2025 to 74.5 percent in February 2026 (up 0.1 percent or 0.1 percentage points).
